Friday games: not much, really

The Crusaders-Sharks game was not exactly a cracker, but in the end, there were tries and Zac Guilford running inside the 10-12 channel is worth to see. Besides, Thomas Waldrom is possibly the in-form number 8 of the competition and only bad luck and a suspicious referee call prevented him from scoring a try.

The game at Newlands, on the other hand, didn't have anything at all. Jacque Fourie was off. And Habana couldn't find his game. 4 penalties and no tries is just the opposite of what you would expect of such a player. Rocky Elsom was nowhere to be seen, and the bloke who saved the day for the Brumbies was the workhorse George Smith. Tackling tackles, winning turnover ball and being virtually everywhere. In the end, he was in the right spot to intercept a Stormers ball and run for the decissive try in the 77th minute.

The game was so bad that the Stormers had a final chance to level up the score with a try in the 81st minute. Joe Pietersen missed the conversion and that was all the difference between two sides that fought hard but without bullets.

Super 14 round 3: predictions

So far I have been surprised by the "unexpected" behaviour of Reds, Waratahs and Crusaders. Last week I completely missread their chances. The most intriguing case is that of the Reds. How consistent are they? The most irregular kiwi franchise is this week in Brisbane to check.

Crusaders 28 - Sharks 24: You would kind of expect both teams to bounce back. The truth is that only one of them can win, and the Crusaders play it at home.
Stormers 15 - Brumbies 19: This is the "come-of-age" game for both teams. Who will leave Cape Town as an adult? I still think the Brumbies can do it.

Hurricanes 38 - Lions 17: Even Dick Muir can't help what can't be helped.
Reds 33 - Blues 27: I predicted a different 2010 for the Blues, but they have proved me wrong, so far.
Western Force 23 - Chiefs 24: Don't expect another try-fest. The Chiefs are a very good side and although the Force is much better than two losses tell, I think the kiwis will get the four points.
Cheetahs 19 - Highlanders 20: The Cheetahs have twice shown their teeth this season. Now it's time for the Highlanders to shine.
Bulls 38 - Waratahs 24: The most impressive thing about these Bulls is that they can easily score 30+ points no matter who's in front.

Auckland Blues: An injury-prone team

It was during the pre-season that I thought that this Blues side could have their year in 2010, provided there were less injury concerns that they have had in the past.

But all of a sudden, injuries appeared again. Tuitavake out for the first rounds, just like Pisi and McAlister. Soon after, Ali Williams was ruled out for 6 months. A week ago it was Isaia Toeava who had to go off the field, now seemingly with a strange hip pain.

Now, who's left? Pat Lam does not want to risk Tuitavake in too early. What should be done about a backline who's consistently missing no less than three starting players?

New interpretations

Two main focus points have drawn referees' attention in the first two rounds of Super 14.

Tackler releasing the tackled player before playing the ball
Players in front of the kicker not retreating.

We have got general approvement of these interpretations, as the games played under them have witnessed more tries (and more penalties, too).

What do we make of them? Although there's plenty of people, like Robbie Deans, most pleased with them, ("close to perfection" was Deans' opinion) there are others like Phil Waugh who think the breakdown will no longer remain a contest.

What do we think?

We think that is further prove (if anymore was needed) that Waugh won't ever wear green and gold again.

Crazy weekend in a sentence

Bulls: too strong.
Hurricanes: good start.
Chiefs: best SA tour in history.
Stormers: Gotta get better.
Reds: Wait and see.
Crusaders: What the hell?
Brumbies: Brave effort, but still no points.
Blues: Get better or die.
Cheetahs: Much improved effort.
Waratahs: Try trying some tries.
Sharks: The hardest is yet to come.
Lions: 65 and still they lost.
Highlanders: What do you need to win a game?
Force: Weakness.

Super 14 round 2: Predictions

Last week, the only real surprises were the seriousness of the Chiefs and perhaps, the firepower of the Cheetahs.
This week, a question mark stands over Sharks, Blues and Waratahs. Can they show a better form than they did last week?

Highlanders 23 - Blues 17: Perhaps the most difficult game to predict. These Highlanders have something. Let me predict a win for them.
Reds 18 - Crusaders 29: The forwards will nulify the Reds.
Sharks 20 - Cheetahs 18: This is the game which could define the seasons of both teams. Do you think the Sharks can't lose this one? Don't be so sure.
Lions 19 - Chiefs 30: The Lions looked like division 2 last week.
Hurricanes 42 - Force 19: Did I ever tell you the story of the Western Weakness?
Bulls 33 - Brumbies 23: The Bulls have too much firepower for almost anybody.
Stormers 22 - Waratahs 24: The 'tahs are the most motivated side of Super 14 right now.

The Western Force injuries make them The Western Weakness

First, Andre Pretorius.
Then, Mark Bartholomeusz, the man who was signed to cover the former's injury.
That was bad luck indeed, or was it?
Earlier this week winger Cameron Shepherd was ruled out due to injury.
And today we have known that two wallabies, Richard Brown and David Pocock won't be able to play next round.

Will John Mitchell be forced to come out and play himself?

In the mean time we suggest the Western Force to change their name to Western Weakness.

Super 14 Round 1 surprises:

There were a few surprises in round one, although the scores weren't as surprising as they could have been. These are the surprises that caught our eye:

1. 9 tries in the best of the all-african match.
2. Peter Hynes playing as fullback
3. James O'Connor unerring boot
4. Steve Meyer's exit from rugby
5. The ability of the Brisbane Reds to lose a game that they should have won
6. The storming attack of the Bulls the first round of the competition; it seems as though they had resumed last year's campaign

Outstanding players

These are some of the players that have shone in the first 4 games of the 2010 Super 14.

Morné Steyn: This can hardly be a surprise, but this guy has carried on his outstanding 2009 form to 2010.
Josh Bekhuis: Please Graham Henry, consider this guy.
Andy Ellis: The best halfback in New Zealand by a long mile.
Juan Smith: He's always leading, he's everywhere, he's doing everything.
Ben Alexander: He's playing much in the spirit of Dave Gallaher: forwards atacking like backs.
James O'Connor: He's the firepower of the Western Force.

The Sharks; legacy or money-built squad?

The decission of Steve Meyer to quit rugby has substantially weakened one area where the Sharks had already coped with two blows: the injuries of both Hernández and Pienaar.

Comments have arisen about the policy of the Sharks and Natal's rugby. Are they poachers? Do they breed their own talent? Natal never won the Currie Cup until 1990, and have managed to win it 5 times since. Presently the Sharks have a dispute with the Lions regarding two players: Willem Alberts and Louis Ludik Besides, they have signed players along SA: Stefan Terblanche (from Boland), Pietersen (from he Jaguars), Odwa Ndungane (from the Bulls). They have also gone to Zimbabwe to get the services of Tendai Mtawarira, and signed world class players like Michalak or Hernández. However, some outstanding players like Ruan Pienaar, John Smit or Ryan Kankowski have grown up within the Natal province.

All in all, the Sharks are a mixed bag of tradition and pragmatism. They can't be compared by any means to teams like Saracens (I have not heard anyone in SA complaining about them) nor they have the same philosophy as Canterbury have.

If you want a team of mercenaries, wait until next year, Melbourne Rebels have still got to build a team

Super 14 round 1: predictions

Now, in 4 days times we will see who's done the homework and who's not. Let me try to guess some of the first round scores:


Western Force 18 - Brumbies 27: I know what happened in the pre-season matches, but I don't pay attention to scores. If Bartholomeusz is the best that the Force have at ten, Giteau will have almost no opposition. 
Cheetahs 12 - Bulls 36: The Bulls are not exactly slow starters. 
Blues 33 - Hurricanes 27: The Blues always win their first fixture of the season. 
Sharks 18 - Chiefs 13: This is the most difficult game to anticipate. The Sharks don't look certainly near as powerful as they should by this time of year, but the Chiefs are the masters of slow starts. 
Lions 23 - Stormers 44: There's definately firepower in Cape Town. 
Reds 19 - Waratahs 23: Forget about the pre-season, one cannot expect McKenzie to single-handedly defeat the Waratahs.
Crusaders 38 - Highlanders 17: Last year the men from Dunedin Invercagill kept the Crusaders scoreless. Two months later, the Stags "stole" the Log'o Wood from Canterbury in Christchurch. With McCaw and Carter back, there's aim for a revenge and there's also the weapons to do it.

League converts, a failed experiment?

For the last 10 years or so, we have witnessed a number of league players "switching codes" to rugby union. This "trend", made possible with the professionalization of rugby union, has provided with players to almost every team, but it is mostly the ARU, NZRU and RFU who have beneffited(?) from it. Or have they?

Let's face it, great rugby league names have most often failed to impress in rugby union. Lote Tuqiri was sacked by the ARU when he did not even make the Wallabies and still, he was their best-paid player. Timana Tahu, Ryan Cross, Lesley Vainikolo, Craig Gower, Sonny Bill Williams... They are all better known for the hype around them (or their contracts) than for their feats in Rugby.

Jason Robinson and Brad Thorn are quite the opposite. Players who have been succesful in union after the switch, players that show it is possible to be succesful in both codes; while Wendell Sailor and Matt Rogers didn't quite like the discipline that union required and came back to league despite more or less succesful union careers.

What is the norm, then? John O'Neill from ARU seems to long ago have made his mind. Once he realised his policy of "let's provide us with some talent from league using our wealthy dollars" was not exactly taking his wallabies where he wanted, the ARU changed their views. No more high-profile contracts from league converts? Does all this mean no more league players will make the switch? Craig Gower seems to have a starting spot with Italy, while Sonny Bill Williams seems to have no real chance of playing for the All Blacks.

Still, players are switching to union, but they do it in a more quietly way, like Michael Witt and Will Chambers. It seems in the end, that the two codes are less and less similar, as the time goes forward. It seems, in the end, that the time of high contracts to league converts is coming to an end.

Super 14 preview (XIV): Cheetahs

Good things: The backrow. JP Nel.
Bad things: When JP Nel is a good things, things are looking really ugly.
Prediction: At least, they should do better than the Lions

Super 14 preview (XIII): Lions

Good things: ... ok, Dick Muir coaching them is a good thing. At least, it cannot be worse than Eloff coaching them.
Bad things: They have signed Carlos Spencer while their best try-scorer is gone.
Prediction: The Lions know their place.

Super 14 preview (XII): Stormers

Good things: Great players coming in, promising Currie Cup and Luke Watson's gone.
Bad things: There was not lack of good players last year when they failed to impress.
Prediction: The Stormers should be again serious candidates to play the playoffs.

Super 14 preview (XI): Sharks

Good things: One of the most competitive rosters in the championship
Bad things: Pienaar and Hernández injured. The players are one year older and Smit simply can't find his position.
Prediction: Can be in the playoffs, but they can very well miss them again.

Super 14 preview (X): Bulls

Good things: they have the men, they have the faith, they have the experience, they have won twice.
Bad things: sports hate stalemates; if you don't get better, you get worse.
Prediction: Fighting for the title, but this time they simply won't win.

Super 14 preview (IX): Reds

Good things: Quade Cooper's been allowed to play and McKenzie knows the competition too well.
Bad things: Without McLinden and Barnes, they will struggle.
Prediction: The Reds know their fate and they won't escape.

Super 14 preview (VIII): Western Force

Good things: James O'Connor should be the light that guides the Force.
Bad things: André Pretorius is already out for the season.
Prediction: John Mitchell will fail for the fourth consecutive season.

Super 14 preview (VII): Waratahs

Good things: The Waratahs are always competitive
Bad things: Neither Barnes nor Mitchell will be what the fans expect.
Prediction: Will be fighting to deliver just like last season.

Super 14 preview (VI): Brumbies

Good things: Matt Giteau is back and Rocky Elsom has signed with the Brumbies.
Bad things: The Brumbies are currently a work in progress as they trial matches suggest. Gotta need time.
Prediction: Will secure a place in the playoffs.

Super 14 preview (V): Highlanders

Good things: They keep the same core of players that played so well last year
Bad things: The backrow lacks quality.
Prediction: Will fare around 50%

Super 14 preview (IV): Chiefs

Good things: Last year they showed they can win games even if they can't run.
Bad things: They struggle against the better teams.
Prediction: Their traditional slow start will hinder again their options to make the playoffs.

Super 14 preview (III): Hurricanes

Good things: They have finally provided themselves with a reliable first five eigthts.
Bad things: They are used to choke in the semifinals:
Prediction: Whoever plays them at the playoffs can call themselves lucky

Super 14 preview (II): Blues

Good things: Pat Lam has signed a few personnel and they are all great players.
Bad things: Ali Williams injury reveals how problematic is Blues pack's lack of depth.
Prediction: Will struggle to make the playoffs.

Super 14 preview (I): Crusaders

Good things: the forward pack, the backline acquisitions (including Carter)
Bad things: the backline needs a whole lot of experience.
Our prediction: Dan Carter will guide them to the title.

Super 14 in less than one week

For the next 4 months starting next week, the southern hemisphere's rugby will be paying attention to the "best provincial competition in the world".
Carlos Spencer, Ali Williams, Matt Giteau, Berrick Barnes, Brian Habana, André Pretorius, George Smith... they have all been in the headlines during the pre-season. But who'll be the main names when the season has started?
In Southern Rugby we shall review how these 14 teams arrive into the first round of the Super 14.